State of…Winning the Lottery

It’s been a tough 2015 for Leafs fans.  The team has gone through their worst performance in franchise history – which is saying something for a team as old as the Leafs.  They have NEVER been worse than this recent stretch.  For those who lived through the 80’s you might find that hard to believe…but it’s true.

The one silver lining in all this is that as the team plummets in the standings, their odds in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes increases. A little over a month ago fans were wondering who the Leafs would face in the first round of the playoffs.  Now, those same fans are left wondering how high up the draft board they can move.

With just four teams below the Leafs in the standings they currently have an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery.  Here are the individual chances (%) of winning the draft lottery:

Finish 30^th: 20% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

Finish 29^th: 13.5% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

Finish 28^th: 11.5% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

Finish 27^th: 9.5% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

Finish 26^th: 8.5% chance of getting the #1 overall pick

Right now, Buffalo, Edmonton, Arizona and Carolina (in order of worst to "best") are all behind the Leafs in the standings.   Thankfully they don’t have to finish last in order to win…it just helps.  So how badly would the Leafs have to play to really increase their chances?  below are three scenarios of how they can finish, and how badly each of the other four teams would have to play, in order for them to move up in the draft lottery.

The Leafs have 25 games remaining:

Scenario #1

• Leafs finish 11-11-3 and finish with 76 total points
• Carolina would need to secure 30 points to pass the Leafs and can secure that by playing at a 14-11-2 clip
• Arizona, with two less games, would need to secure 30 points and play at a 14-8-2 clip
• Edmonton would need 35 total points – a 16-5-3 record here out
• Buffalo would need a whopping 41 points (more than they have to date) which can be accomplished by going 19-4-3

Scenario #2

• Leafs finish their last 25 games by going 8-14-3 – achieving a total of 70 points
• Carolina would need to win 11 games by going 11-14-2, giving them 71 points
• Arizona would need to also win 11 games, but the requires going 11-11-2
• Edmonton needs to secure 29 points – going 13-8-3 does it
• Buffalo still needs to secure more points than they have all year by going 17-7-2

Scenario #3

• The Leafs finish up the season continuing their cold streak and go 5-18-2 to finish the year at 63 points
• To surpass 63 points Carolina would only need to go 7-17-3 the rest of the way – totally 64 points
• Arizona would need to go 7-14-3 the rest of the way
• To secure 64 points Edmonton would need to play at a nearly .500 pace, going 10-12-2
• Buffalo would need to get very hot and finish up going 13-10-3

Suffice to say, it doesn’t look good for Toronto to finish 30^th…but they do stand a better than average chance of moving further down in the standings.  When it comes to winning the first overall pick…to quote Jim Carrey: